By Nick Marchant, Director, March Talent Partners · Published 13 May 2026 · 5 min read
TL;DR. The 2026-27 Budget delivered tax certainty for family farms (primary production trust exemption, $20,000 instant asset write-off made permanent) and structurally contracted agricultural workforce capability. Net Overseas Migration falls to 225,000 by 2027-28, 45% below the 2022-23 peak. Permanent migration is capped at 185,000 with no ag carve-out. Apprenticeship incentives redirect to construction. Plan 2026-27 hires earlier.
Key takeaways
- Tax wins for family farms: primary production income exempt from the new 30% trust tax (around 40,000 ag trusts affected); $20,000 instant asset write-off made permanent for small business entities under $10 million turnover (Budget Paper No. 1).
- Structural migration tightening: NOM forecast at 225,000 by 2027-28 (45% below the 2022-23 peak); permanent migration capped at 185,000 places with 132,240 in the Skill stream and no ag carve-out (BP1 Statement 6).
- Apprenticeship reform redirects to construction: revised Australian Apprenticeships Priority List takes effect 1 January 2027 with “critical construction occupations” named; ag not on the priority list (BP1 Statement 6).
- Marginal ag-workforce pilots end; broader contractions land: four ag workforce programs totalling roughly $5 million wind down with no replacement; Future Drought Fund cut $52 million over four years; DAFF reprioritisation totals $191.6 million over five years (DAFF PBS Tables 26 and 38).
What did Treasury actually say about the agricultural workforce?
The Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry’s Portfolio Budget Statement, released with the 2026-27 Federal Budget on 12 May 2026, names the agricultural workforce as a sectoral challenge. Its strategic direction statement reads: “Producers are facing challenges accessing fuel, fertiliser, and plastics for packaging, and accessing sufficient labour on farms, in forestry and on trawlers.”
That’s the operational reality acknowledged at the highest level of the federal agricultural bureaucracy. Read on its own, you’d expect a funded response.
What did the Budget actually move on?
The 2026-27 Budget delivered three structural wins that family-farm operators have been pressing for.
Primary production income is exempt from the new 30% minimum tax on discretionary trusts. The carve-out, confirmed in Budget Paper No. 1, applies to the estimated 40,000 trusts used across Australian agriculture and protects the succession arithmetic on family-farm businesses where the discretionary trust is the core ownership vehicle.
The $20,000 instant asset write-off is now permanent for small business entities with aggregated turnover under $10 million, from 1 July 2026. The Budget Overview estimates the measure will improve cash flow for small businesses by around $890 million over five years. For ag operators below the threshold, that is meaningful capex support across the forward estimates.
Small business CGT concessions continue unchanged. Budget Paper No. 1 confirms this in plain terms. Combined with the trust exemption, the Budget has cleaned up the tax-structural risk that hovered over family-farm succession planning through 2025.
These are real wins. They are not workforce wins. Tax certainty does not address whether the people will exist to put behind the capex the IAWO supports, or whether the next generation in a family-trust ownership structure will have the operational pipeline to step into.
Why is the funded response effectively zero?
The 2026-27 Budget contains no new agricultural workforce initiative. The four existing ag workforce programs are winding down across the forward estimates, and the quantum should be visible.
AgCAREERSTART closed 30 June 2026 with a final year of funding at $411,000. AgConnections closed on the same date at $500,000. The National Farm Safety Education Fund runs to 2027-28 with a final-year allocation of $1 million. Fair Farms is funded through to 2028-29 at roughly $200,000 per year, then ends. Together, the four programs total approximately $5 million across the forwards before termination.
The Foundations for the Agricultural Workforce Package houses three of those four programs: AgCAREERSTART, AgConnections, and the National Farm Safety Education Fund. Each reaches its scheduled term date across the forward estimates with no replacement funded. In dollar terms, this is marginal. The cohort of operators who built sector-specialist pipelines on AgCAREERSTART scaffolding will feel its absence; in aggregate Budget arithmetic, the structural workforce shift is elsewhere.
The broader pattern outside workforce: Future Drought Fund cut $52 million over four years, biosecurity programs including Pest and Disease Preparedness reduced under the $191.6 million DAFF reprioritisation, and Cultivating Australia’s Traceability not refunded; we pick up the sector-specific cuts in cotton and wine R&D in the next piece in this Budget series.
Where are the supply-side levers tightening?
Three migration levers that have historically filled gaps in operational and supervisory agricultural roles are all moving in the same direction in this Budget.
The Australian Apprenticeship Incentive System is being redirected through the Strategic Review reform, with employer incentives concentrated on “small and medium employers and Group Training Organisations” and “critical construction occupations” (Budget Paper No. 1, Statement 6). Agriculture is not on the named priority list. The revised Australian Apprenticeships Priority List takes effect 1 January 2027.
The permanent migration program is capped at 185,000 places for 2026-27, with 132,240 places allocated to the Skill stream (over 70% of the total program), and 129,590 places across both Skill and Family streams prioritised for onshore applicants. The points test reform favours “better educated, higher-skilled and younger” migrants. Agricultural operational and supervisory roles are not carved out.
The Working Holiday Maker program reform expands the use of ballots to “better control numbers” and “provide a fairer allocation of WHM visas”. Detail on country caps and commencement is pending, but the directional read is downward.
Net Overseas Migration is forecast at 305,000 (2024-25), 295,000 (2025-26), 245,000 (2026-27), and 225,000 ongoing from 2027-28 (Budget Overview 2026-27). That’s 45% below the 2022-23 peak.
The mechanisms that smoothed gaps in 2023 and 2024 are not the mechanisms available in 2026 and 2027.
What does this mean for hiring decisions in 2026-27?
For agribusiness operators planning 2026-27 hires, the structural read is that the marginal supply of operational and supervisory labour is tightening. The mechanisms that smoothed gaps in 2023 and 2024, including temporary visa overflow, expanded apprenticeship subsidies, and AgCAREERSTART-style careers pipelines, are not the mechanisms available in 2026 and 2027.
Operators relying on Working Holiday Makers for seasonal labour should plan their 2027 picking and packing season earlier than they did in 2025, and budget for tighter supply at a higher per-head cost.
Operators recruiting at the operational supervisor level (Senior Farm Hand, Irrigation Supervisor, Section Manager) are operating in a market with fewer entry-level pipeline alternatives. The candidates available are largely the candidates already in the sector. Internal progression strategies become more important.
Mid-senior management hiring (Assistant Farm Manager, Farm Manager, Regional Manager) is less directly exposed to these specific Budget signals but is affected by the same downward NOM trajectory. Time-to-fill at this level has lengthened across 2024 and 2025; nothing in this Budget reverses that.
What should operators do this quarter?
Three practical recommendations.
First, plan 2026-27 hires earlier. If you were going to start a Q1 2027 search in November, start in September. Time-to-fill at the operational supervisor and mid-senior management levels has lengthened across 2024 and 2025, and nothing in this Budget reverses that.
Second, budget longer. The package that won a candidate in 2024 will not win the same candidate in 2026. Total compensation, search lead time, and the brief itself need to reflect a smaller, slower-moving market. The candidates available are largely the candidates already in the sector.
Third, treat the pipeline that filled 2024 gaps as gone. Working Holiday Maker overflow, expanded apprenticeship subsidies, AgCAREERSTART scaffolding. Those mechanisms are tightening or redirecting. The marginal labour you used last year is not the marginal labour available next year. Internal progression and retention as a hiring strategy carry the load.
The tax measures matter for family-farm succession and operator capex confidence. They do not change the agricultural workforce arithmetic. The question is whether operators absorb that signal now, or absorb the cost in the second half of 2027.
March Talent Partners works with farming businesses and agribusinesses across Australia on permanent placements, from operational roles through to senior management. If you’re planning your 2026-27 hires and want a sharper read on the talent market, get in touch.
