By Nick Marchant, Director, March Talent Partners · Published 28 October 2026 · 6 min read
TL;DR. The MDBA’s draft reconciliation shows Basin water-saving projects falling 265 GL a year short, and the basin plan review is under way. Neither decision sits with an irrigated operator, but the person running your water is your call. Across our irrigation manager placements, scheduling judgement and water accounting decided the shortlist more often than equipment experience.
Key takeaways
- The MDBA’s 2026 draft SDLAM determination assumes 22 of the 39 original measures will operate by the deadline, delivering 340 GL a year against a 605 GL forecast: a shortfall of 265 GL a year (MDBA, 2026).
- A National Irrigators’ Council report built on Bureau of Meteorology water account data finds 23% of the Basin’s available water is diverted for human use and 77% stays in rivers (NIC, October 2026).
- Cotton Australia expects a 2026-27 crop of about 2.7 million bales, down from 4.5 million, with access to water the biggest driver of planting decisions (Cotton Australia, 2026).
- Across our irrigation manager placements, scheduling judgement and water accounting decided the shortlist more often than equipment experience (MTP placement data).
Two pieces of Basin business will shape how much water irrigators can count on after 2026. The MDBA has to finalise its reconciliation of the Sustainable Diversion Limit Adjustment Mechanism (SDLAM) by the end of the year, and its basin plan review is under way. Neither is a decision an operator makes. The decision you do make is who runs your water while the answers arrive, and on most irrigated operations that is one or two people.
What is changing in the Basin in 2026?
The MDBA’s 2026 draft SDLAM determination assumes 22 of the 39 measures first notified will be operating at the 31 December 2026 deadline. Together they deliver 340 GL a year against the 605 GL a year adjustment the measures were forecast to provide, leaving a shortfall of 265 GL a year (MDBA). The MDBA consulted on the draft through October and finalises the determination by the end of the year. Its position is that responses to the reconciliation are a matter for Basin governments.
In the same month, the National Irrigators’ Council released a report built on the Bureau of Meteorology’s National Water Account. It finds 23% of the Basin’s total available water is diverted for human use, and 77% stays in rivers, wetlands and floodplains (National Irrigators’ Council). Irrigators, environmental groups and governments each read that balance their own way, and the basin plan review will hear all of them. For the operator, the shared fact is simpler: the water you can count on in 2027 and beyond isn’t settled yet.
What does water uncertainty do to an irrigated operation?
Cotton growers are living it this season. Cotton Australia expects a 2026-27 crop of about 2.7 million bales, down from 4.5 million last year, and names access to water as the biggest driver of planting decisions (Cotton Australia). Planted area follows allocation, and a smaller crop puts every megalitre under a sharper budget.
Permanent plantings carry the risk another way. An orchard can’t fallow a block in a short year, so allocation, carryover and trading decisions land on the manager every season, and a poor call shows up in fruit and tree health for years after. We covered that side in our horticulture hiring outlook. Either way, the person running the water budget is now running a larger share of the margin.
Others set the water balance. Your manager sets what each megalitre earns.
Which roles carry the water risk?
The answer depends on the sector, because water sits in a different chair in each one.
| Operation | Who carries the water decision | What to test at interview |
|---|---|---|
| Horticulture, permanent plantings | Irrigation manager and irrigation supervisor | Scheduling judgement and water accounting |
| Irrigated cotton | Cotton or farm manager, as a whole-of-team task | Planting and allocation decisions against available water |
| Irrigated mixed and broadacre cropping | Farm manager | A water budget built against the crop plan |
Source: MTP placement and search experience across irrigated horticulture, cotton and cropping operations.
The standalone irrigation manager title belongs to horticulture. In irrigated cotton and broadacre cropping it doesn’t exist: water sits inside the cotton or farm manager’s scope, and the operators we place for treat that capability as a retention priority through water-driven contractions, as we set out in our piece on the irrigation manager shortage. Across our irrigation manager placements, scheduling judgement and water accounting decided the shortlist more often than equipment experience did.
How should Basin operators hire while the basin plan review runs?
Three moves hold whichever way the reconciliation and the basin plan review land.
- Write water accounting into the manager brief. Allocation statements, carryover, temporary trades and a water budget against the crop plan belong in the job description and in the interview, beside agronomy and people.
- Keep the people who know your system through a short year. A smaller planted area tempts a smaller payroll. The manager who knows your channels, pumps and allocation history takes that knowledge with them, and it is hard to buy back mid-season.
- Start manager searches ahead of the water decisions. The manager-level searches we’ve completed since late 2024 ran two to seven months from engagement to start date, as our succession planning piece shows. A search opened after allocations and planting decisions are made lands the new manager after the season’s biggest calls.
The basin plan review will settle the Basin’s long-run balance on its own timetable. The operations that hold margin through it will have someone who runs water as a line in the budget, with a number against every megalitre and the authority to act on it.
Frequently asked questions
What is the SDLAM shortfall in the Murray-Darling Basin?
The MDBA’s 2026 draft determination assumes 22 of the 39 original water-saving measures will operate by the 31 December 2026 deadline. They deliver 340 GL a year against a 605 GL a year forecast, a shortfall of 265 GL a year. The MDBA finalises the determination by the end of 2026, and responses are for Basin governments.
How much Basin water is diverted for human use?
A National Irrigators’ Council report released in October 2026, built on Bureau of Meteorology water account data, finds 23% of the Basin’s total available water is diverted for human use and 77% stays in rivers, wetlands and floodplains. The figures are NIC’s analysis, and the basin plan review will hear other readings of the same balance.
Who manages water on an irrigated cotton farm?
The cotton or farm manager does. Irrigated cotton has no separate irrigation manager title, so water sits inside the manager’s role as a whole-of-team task, from allocation strategy to planting decisions. With Cotton Australia expecting about 2.7 million bales in 2026-27, down from 4.5 million, that judgement carries more of the season.
March Talent Partners works with farming businesses and agribusinesses across Australia on permanent placements, from operational roles through to mid-senior management. If your water sits with one person on a cotton or horticulture operation and you couldn’t replace them before the next allocation call, talk to us about the search.
